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Prediction for CME (2026-03-25T15:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-25T15:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45320/-1
CME Note: Wide, faint, slow to evolve CME observed to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and less wide to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The CME begins very slow and faint, speeding up somewhat as it evolves. The source for this CME is not too clear, but may be associated with a very slow dimming region of the disk centered around N15W05 at 2026-03-25T15:00Z as part of a nearby coronal hole, slowly evolving and drifting with the coronal hole for almost a full 24 hours. This does match the slow, wide nature of this CME front, corroborating it as the potential source along with the swpc_cat triangulation to this general area of the disk.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-29T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45322/1
Model Inputs:
2026-03-25T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=30.0, Speed=295.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2026-03-26T12:14Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-29T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-28T10:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-30T16:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-30T01:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260326_121400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-26T14:10Z

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